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Top Bull Runs and Worst Bear Runs
By JD Bluefield | May 22, 2008
Due to the high interest in the Top Ten Market Crashes, I decided to do a little reseach into the Top US Bull Runs and the Worst US Bear Crashes. Here is what I found.
The first table shows the crashes of the DJIA.
| Period | Begining DJIA | End DJIA | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17/1901 - 11/9/1903 | 57 | 31 | (46%) |
| 01/19/1906 - 11/15/1907 | 75 | 39 | (49%) |
| 11/21/1916 - 12/19/1917 | 110 | 66 | (40%) |
| 11/03/1919 - 08/24/1921 | 120 | 64 | (47%) |
| 09/03/1929 - 11/13/1929 | 381 | 199 | (48%) |
| 04/17/1930 - 07/08/1932 | 294 | 41 | (86%) |
| 03/10/1937 - 03/31/1938 | 194 | 99 | (49%) |
| 09/12/1939 - 04/28/1942 | 156 | 93 | (40%) |
| 01/11/1973 - 12/6/1974 | 1,052 | 578 | (45%) |
| 01/15/2000 - 10/9/2002 | 11,793 | 7,286 | (38%) |
Source: fool.com
The second table shows the most recent bull runs of the S&P 500, in the last 30 years.
| Period | Begining S&P500 | End S&P500 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/26/1970 - 01/11/1973 | 69.29 | 120.24 | 74% |
| 10/4/1974 - 09/21/1976 | 62.34 | 107.83 | 73% |
| 08/13/1982 - 08/25/1987 | 103.85 | 336.77 | 224% |
| 10/11/1990 - 03/24/2000 | 295.46 | 1527.46 | 417% |
| 10/9/2002 - 05/21/2007 | 776.76 | 1525.10 | 96% |
Source: fool.com
So where am I going with this? Well, as with the sea, stocks move in an ebb and flow. Right now we’re experiencing a waning stock market.
Engineer Out the Losers: There are numerous stocks and companies that are going to get screwed in this recession. Basically anything that makes money on discretionary spending. Starbucks coffee is going to get murdered further by McDonald’s cheap and better quality coffee (per Consumer Reports). Sirius and XM radio, who can afford to pay for radio these days? All the microbrews, Samuel Adam, Gordon Biersch and the like, are going to be hurting. People have been talking about wheat and food shortages, but hops, a major component of flavor in beer, has also been hit by the problem. Premium spirits will also be dropping in demand. More people are just going to look for something that “gets the job done”. People will be taking less distant and extravagant vacations. So keep an eye on Disney, Six Flags and the like. Unfortunately, being that I live in Hawaii, I think our economy will be taking a major hit very soon. As I’ve said before, WholeFoods and other cost-INeffective organics have a bulls eye on their back.
Also anything that relies on shipping, transporting goods or fuel are going to be highly affected by rising gasoline prices. Any Airlines, Fedex, UPS, etc. are going to wince with every rise in gasoline. A news release today has stated that American Airlines is now charging for the FIRST checked in bag! Hawaiian Airlines will be releasing an IPO on the NASDAQ soon, this is also a desperate grab for cash.
Engineer your Investments: I saw this recession coming for a while and knew housing had no where to go buy down, in a major way. Credit use had spun out of control, the end game could have only been a major downturn. So I just asked myself, what will people fight tooth and nail to avoid giving up. First, people will keep eating, but probably less or more cheaply. Second, cars and thus gasoline. The health sector will probably hold itself as people will keep getting sick. Then there are the bad habits that people will never give up. Alcohol, smoking and gambling will keep on trucking, but people will probably switch to more affordable alternatives. All the microbrew snobs will soon switch to the mainstreams.
With the dollar dropping like a rock for the last 5 years, I started investing in alternative vehicles that move inversely to the US$. Oil, Gold, Silver and Foreign stocks are examples of some of these investments. Yesteday Oil hit a new peak of $133/barrel, gold and silver are climbing back to previous highs, at $930/oz and $18/oz, respectively.
Many people are complaining about the economy and recessions and dropping stocks, but to be honest my portfolio has NEVER BEEN HIGHER. I don’t say this to gloat or lord it over everyone else. I just want to help others out and give people an alternative to the “talking heads” on TV. I don’t charge anything for this info, and I don’t get paid to sell you mutual funds. If you have friends you’d like to help too, be sure to let them know about this site. Check out My Investments - May 2008 to see exactly what I invest in. I’ll also be posting my monthly update in about a week. I invest in the Buffett style and it has work tremendously for me. Check out my About page.
Topics: Investing |
2 Responses to “Top Bull Runs and Worst Bear Runs”
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May 22nd, 2008 at 7:13 am
I would look at Disney as having a chance of weathering a recession and doing well. People need entertainment and escape during hard times. During the great depression, entertainment, “movies”, did well.
It is hard to see the future, but one thing is certain. We are headed for a great depression.
May 22nd, 2008 at 12:47 pm
I think Disney will still make money on movies, but with people unwilling or unable to travel, I think the parks will take a hit.