Depreciation: Not Just For The Dollar
By JD Bluefield | August 4, 2008
Have you been saddened lately by the dollar’s declining value? From 1980 to now the buying power of the dollar has been cut by more than half. Well, if that’s depressing, here is some food for thought that may cheer you up. Skimming through portfolio.com, I found an article about the ridiculous currencies around the world that are virtually worthless. Not quite post-WWII Germany Marks in a wheelbarrow, but close.
Zimbabwe
Freaked about the USD’s (US Dollar’s) 4% inflation rate? Zimbabwe’s inflation rate peaked at 100,000%. The best part… these dollars have an expiration date.
10M Zimbabwe Dollars = $4 USD
Viet Nam
Viet Nam’s 500,000-dong = $31.37 USD
This is what half a million dongs look like. Sorry, sophomoric, but I couldn’t help myself.
Source: Portfolio.com
Indonesia
100,000-rupiah = $11.05 USD
Iran
50,000-rial = $5.35 USD
Inflation is right around 15%.
Sao Tome
50,000-dobra = $3.47 USD
Guinea
10,000-franc = $2.33 USD
It’s good to know that there are places where the mighty dollar is still mighty! I’d never want to visit these places, but still good to know.
Here in the US we have heavy discussions on the validity and necessity of pennies and nickels, since they actually cost more to produce than they’re worth. If you apply that cost to foreign notes its easy to extrapolate the minimum denomination that one of these countries might use.
According to the Bureau of Engraving and Printing, in 2007 it costs 6.2 cents per note to print 9.1 billion US currency paper notes. If you apply that to the Viet Nam dong, it means that the minimum profitable dong for the Viet Nam mint to print would be 1,000-dongs. (500,000-dongs / $31.37 USD) * $0.062 USD = 988.2-dongs. Since it makes no sense to make a 989-dong, you’d round up to the next metric. Can you imagine carrying 1,000 dongs in your wallet? Okay, now I’m really done. But either way, now you have something worldly to talk about at your next social party.
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This Bud’s For InBev
By JD Bluefield | July 11, 2008
Today MarketWatch announced that InBev is closer to acquiring BUD (Anheuser-Busch Companies, Inc) with a new (rumored) offer of $70/share. According to the article, the deal could go down as soon as this weekend, mostly spurred by Warren Buffett’s support of the deal. Because of the new bid price, shares have risen from their $61 hover, up to $66.
As I stated in InBev To Drink Up Bud?, I’m a shareholder of BUD stock and very excited about the deal. BUD is my second largest holding by value and have slowly aquired shares during low points in price. Since the last post about BUD, the price of the stock has risen $10/share, almost 20%.
Some shareholders have voiced displeasure at BUD’s Board of Directors attempt to prevent the deal, trying to buy Groupo Modelo, filing lawsuits, etc. but I believe that it was more of a filibuster to hold out for more money. It was clear early on that BUD’s Board and Busch family did not actually own enough shares to prevent the acquisition. Besides, Warren Buffett alone, via Berkshire Hathaway, already owns 5% of BUD and some family members are eager to sell. If this deal fell through, it would have been InBev’s choice.
Obviously the hold out for more was worth it. $70 is 7.7% over their previous $65 offer. I’d argue that’s a huge jump for essentially doing a whole lot of talking. Good work BUD board, way to take Maury Ballstein’s advice, “Screw Him! Hold out for more!” If you don’t know who that is, look it up.
It has been said that the deal could go down as early as this weekend. If that’s so, where is my “tender shares” proxy? I got my pen ready.
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My Net Worth - July 2008
By JD Bluefield | July 10, 2008
My Net Worth for July 2008: If you’d like to learn more about my net worth, how I calculate it and how you can too, check out my Net Worth April 2008 post. You’ll as find a great Excel spreadsheet, called Net Worth Calculator, I made to help you and your friends keep track of your own net worth.
My Monthly Net Worth (July 2008): Figure 1 shows my net worth from 2007 to July 2008, with monthly data-points. Although the DJIA and S&P have been tanking, my net worth grew around +4% to $534k. This is mostly due to increase in stock portfolio. Unfortunately, this is all “money on paper”, so I’m not really swimming in a sea of coins ala’ Uncle Scrooge. Perhaps one day…
Figure 1: My Monthly Net Worth (Click on the chart to enlarge.)
Here is a breakdown of how my different investments have performed.
- Savings: Steady contribution to ING (3.0% APY). Moved some money from Emigrant (2.75% APY) to my 4.0% checking account at CPB.
- Stocks: As with last month, positions against the dollar (such as commodities) have gone even higher. Also, the fight between InBev and Bud appears to be steaming up. BUD is now hovering around $61-62, just below InBev’s buyout price of $65. Of course BUD thinks they are worth more, nearer to $75, but Inbev believes $65 is fair. InBev is now trying to proxy to oust the BUD board of directors, a very gutsy move. Of course, I’d love it if BUD fought and actually got $75/share, which would get me $75/share, but it is tough to say how this will end. Some of the mainstream stocks are lower from highs, but no scary drops or losses.
- Mortgage: Steadily paying off loan.
- Loans/Credit Cards: No other debt/loans and I pay off the balance every month so, no change there.
- Retirement: My retirement funds are dropping, but since they are based a limited number of index funds, that is to be expected. Also, since I can’t pick individual stocks, I think the best approach is for dollar cost averaging.
My Net Worth Evaluation: As with last month, the US$ is tanking and gold and oil are appreciating to match.
My Yearly Net Worth Changes: Figure 2 shows my net worth from college/starting work to present day.
Figure 2: My Yearly Net Worth (Click on the chart to enlarge.)
In Closing: Check out New Private Post to see stock investments, retirement, etc. that can only be seen when logged in. Subscription is free.
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The Fit Is Go! Part 2
By JD Bluefield | July 3, 2008
As a follow up to The Fit Is Go! Part 1, and after driving the Honda Fit for about a month, I’ve gone through most of the required maintenance and learned more about what it has to offer.
I’ve changed both the engine air filter, cabin air filter, engine oil, engine coolant and inflated/rotated the tires. Even when a seller has records of maintenance or said they performed it, I always like to do it all of this myself. In doing so, you learn a lot about the design and condition of your vehicle.
Engine Air Filters: The engine air filter is usually the first thing I replace. It’s often neglected and is actually the easiest of all regular maintenance. Air filter dirty quickly and should be inspected and changed regularly. The engine’s air filter will be located in the engine compartment, often in a black rectangular plastic box or a flat pancake shaped can, in some older model cars and trucks. Unclip or unscrew the cover, remove the old filter, replace with new filter and replace cover. Simple as that. I gained 6 mpg with this change alone, as the previous owner left a dirty mess in that box for me.
I prefer Fram replacement filters over expensive OEM factory or K&N “cleanable” filters, and can be found in the auto supply section of any K-Mart or Walmart. Some may swear that K&N brand filters increase performance and are cheaper over the long run, I’m not so convinced. I don’t want to chance excess debris getting in the combustion chamber and I’ve also read that excess oil from a K&N filter can slowly accumulate on your 02 sensor. This will throw off your engine’s timing and cost well over the $30 you save over the life of the car. I say toss the whole filter and start new.
Cabin Air Filters: These are a common feature on many newer cars. They are located behind the glove box and are also just as easy to replace. Remove all the crap contents from the glove box, push in the tabs holding the glove box in, remove the glove box and above the cylindrical A/C fan housing should be a box with a hinge or removable cover. That is where the cabin air filter is located.
You can purchase these filters from the dealer and do it yourself, saving money on labor. Or you can save even more by purchasing them online from ebay. I picked up two filters for around $10 each, much less than the $20 the dealer wanted, not including labor.
I’ve found the same non-OEM filters in a friend’s car who just got serviced by the dealer. So I suspect some of the dealers are pocketing the difference between the non-OEM filter they install and the OEM filter they’re charging you. It may only be $10, but after servicing thousands of cars, that savings adds up to some big bucks.
Tire Inflation: Self explanatory, but still often over looked. This has a big effect on performance, safety and fuel economy. Under inflated tires increase resistance and wear. Disclaimer: You should always insure tires are inflated to the manufacturer recommended pressure. With that said, there are people that over inflate their tires to achieve higher gas mileage. This decreases the contact area and the grab to the pavement and thus reduce rolling resistance. On the other hand, it may also increase road noise and negatively affect handling/braking. I do know several people who inflate their tires between 5 and 15 psi above the recommended pressure and report increased gas mileage. 15 psi is a little extreme, but I think 5 psi is good. Do so at your own risk. I personally believe it is better to be a little over than a little under, as the major reason for the high speed roll-overs years back were due to under inflation of tires.
Oil Changes: Many people shy away from changing oil, but I actually enjoy doing it myself. It also ensure that I’m getting what I paid for. No underhanded switcher-oo’s on paying for the $6/qt synthetic and getting leftover oil from someone else’s car. Its easy to find oil changing instructions, so I’ll just throw out some tips on how I save money and time.
- Buy a box of Nitrile gloves from Costco and use whenever doing engine work. Won’t keep you from getting dirty, but helps a lot. Throws some of those Nitrile gloves in a sealable plastic bag and leave them in the spare tire area for future use.
- Make your own oil disposal box: This will not only save you money, but actually puts good use to all that old newspaper, boxes and plastic bags. It’s practically “green”… not really. Anyway, get around half a dozen sturdy hole-less plastic bags and a low flat box. (Walmart and HomeDepot bags suck now, too thin.) Put all the bags one into another and set into the box. Roll over the edges of the inner plastic bag so it overlaps the outer plastic bags. Start shredding news paper and stuff it into the plastic bags. You could just tear strips with your hand, but I find that a cross-cut confetti document shredder saves your fingers and provides optimal oil absorbing surface area. Pack the paper down into the bag. When you think you have enough, add some more.
- Before your remove the drain plug, remove oil cap first and wipe clean. Do it the opposite way and by some chance the oil fill cap is stuck, now you’re really F-ed.
- Change the oil filter with every oil change. You spending $50-100 a week on gas, spring for the $5 filter every 3 months.
- Invest $30-50 on a car ramp. This will make oil changing a breeze. Its also a great aid for inspecting, repairing, maintaining your car in other ways. For instance it gives you access to check your CV boots and make sure they’re not torn or damaged. It also made changing the radiator coolant a little easier. Always make sure you block your tires once on the ramp.
Doing regular maintenance is the key to keeping your car in optimum operating condition. This is also the key to increasing engine performance and fuel economy. After changing the air filter, inflating, aligning and rotating the tires my gas mileage improved from 28 mpg to 34 mpg. After learning a little more about the car, how it handles and the 4th/5th gear engine cruising, my latest gas mileage is now averaging 36 mpg. Well, 35.87 mpg to be precise, but either way, that’s 12 mpg greater than my previous vehicle, a 50% improvement.
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Buy Gas = Free Tacos
By JD Bluefield | June 25, 2008
Free Tacos! Free A couple nights ago I found out that tomorrow, Thursday, June 26, Jack In The Box will be giving away two free tacos when you show them a receipt for the purchase of gasoline. Since most run 24-hrs (not so in all Southern California locations… I’ve learned the hard way), it will run midnight to 11:59pm Thursday. If you like to visit the site and verify, Jack in the Box created a web page with a the TV-ad to explain the nitty gritty details. So dig through that receipt pile and find a gas receipt, any gas receipt, as they won’t accept copies.
Nothing is free: Keep in mind though, you still expend gasoline driving there. So if there isn’t a Jack’s on the way home or nearby, you may not be saving much, if anything. I have two locations my drive home, so that 4 free tacos that I’ll be picking up. Your arteries are also going to pay a toll, 160 calories per taco. So run to the nearest Jack’s to credit yourself those calories, save gas and get free tacos! In my opinion, this is a geniusly diabolical marketing strategy by Jack’s. You get people to look up the nearest location, free always sets up an enjoyable experience, 99% of people will order more food than the tacos (I and some of my readers will make up the 1%), and its sets up a relationship that Jack’s your friend by relieving you from the gas situation. Contrary to what you may be thinking at this point, I am not a shareholder in Jack’s (JBX), but their shares did rise when word of these free tacos was released. As a single male in 18-35 demographic, I’m obviously a big fan of their food. But as an investment, I don’t have any intention of loading up on Jack’s stock. McD’s and surprisingly KFC have a much wider foothold in the global food market, which I think is where the real growth will come from. Jack’s also faces many competitors in the large-greasy-cheesy burger market (e.g. Carl’s Jr., Hardee’s, etc.).
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The Fit Is Go! Part 1 (Updated 6/26/2008)
By JD Bluefield | June 23, 2008
So what has been keeping me from posting these past few weeks? Well, with the gas at over $4/gallon and oil continuing its rise I decide to sell my truck and transition to a more fuel efficient vehicle. It’s not that my truck was a V8 gas guzzler. In fact, it averaged 23mpg with its 4-cylinder engine. That was great, but I’ve now opted for the Honda Fit Sport, which got 34mpg on my last fill up. I love trucks for their great utility and versatility, but the new Fit’s sportiness and reconfigurable seats brings versatility in small cars to a whole new level.
What spurred this drastic move? When I read that it was impossible to sell a used truck/SUV in California and that Ford, GM and Toyota were dramatically reducing truck production, the writing was on the wall that gas prices were more likely to go higher than lower and that if there were any time to bail out of a truck/SUV it would be now. As I’ve said in other posts, I believe that oil will continue to rise and gas will inevitably follow suit.
You make money when you buy, not when you sell. It may piss some people off to hear this, but I actually MADE money selling my truck. How is this possible? Although, I sold my truck below Blue Book, but I bought it way below Blue Book. I treat buying a car the same way I buy a stock. It has to be in great condition, no problems and most of all, value, value, value! You can’t make a stock or in this case truck any cheaper after you buy it. The money is always made on the front end to the deal, not the back. I wasn’t planning to sell the truck for a profit, but it was something that just worked out nicely.
I never buy new. You lose up to 25% of the vehicle’s value the moment it hits the pavement. I can’t stomach that loss and its just not good business. Many people want to buy a new car, not me. I get more of an ego boost scooping up a great deal than bragging about how much money I flushed down the tubes.
Not only do you lose money on a new car, but its an overwhelming waste of time. I’ve spent hours with friends in the “closing” room and its just not worth it. They try to screw you with the trade in, screw you with the options, screw you with the financing. Its a total waste of time. I’d much rather go on craigslist, type in “must sell” and talk to people who are in a bind, want to sell their car and will to give me a good deal. And this is exactly what I did. I found someone moving out of state and picked up an ugly duckling at a literally trade-in price.
Never let emotions get involved. Although I loved that Tacoma and was the best truck I’ve ever owned, I had to let it go. It just did not make economic sense to hold onto it. Like I said, I did sell it below Blue Book, and that hurts when you know its really worth more, but I was more than happy to get my money back.
On the purchasing side, I really wanted to get a Honda Fit, but I didn’t jump into the first one I found. Two sellers wanted way above KBB to compensate for the premium they paid, so I had to walk away. One even wanted $6k above MSRP because that is how much over they paid. Unbelievable. Fortunately an opportunity presented itself and I jumped on it and walked with a better deal than I could have imagined.
No offer is too low. If I told you going into this deal that I’d get $2400 off the asking price, you’d call me crazy. Here is how the negotiations went down.
$19,000 Buyer Paid (With options and mark up)
$16,600 MSRP
$14-15k Blue Book
$13,400: Seller’s posted price on Craigslist.
$13,000: Seller’s lowers asking for Honda Fit in first email.
$10,650: My offer.
$11,800: Seller’s counter offer.
$11,000: My counter offer. Seller takes offer.
The truth is, you never know what can happen unless you try. If I had thought, she’ll never sell for $500 less than asking, then that’s the max I’d get off the price. I honestly expected there to be tons of problems with the car that would be exposed upon inspection. There were minor issues, but overall a great car at a great price. The reason this woman was so eager to deal was that she was leaving the islands in two weeks, needed to sell the car and dealerships probably offered her far less than I. So even though she lost money, we both walked away happy campers.
Immediate Savings: Price Tacoma sold for - Price of Honda Fit = over $5 Pocket money.
Yearly savings:
$60/yr savings in insurance.
With gas at $4.10/gal, I’m projecting to save around $520/year.
If gas goes to $5.00/gal, that savings will rise to $630/year.
Gasp, $6.00/gal gasoline, savings jumps to $760/year.
I’ll also save drastically more on yearly depreciation.
Hopefully the savings doesn’t end here and with an oil change and some adjustment of driving habits I can increase fuel economy even more.
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At The Movies
By JD Bluefield | June 20, 2008
It has been quite a break since my last post and to get back into the swing of things, I’m starting it with something a little different. Now usually I talk about making money, best credit cards and stocks, but last night I watch the worst steaming piece I’ve ever seen in years, so you could say it inspired me. This brings me to my first point.
1) Do not watch The Happening. M. Night Shyamalan has been putting out over-rated stinker after over-rated stinker. Contrary to what I had heard, read and expected, I thought I’d give him a second chance. Boy was I mistaken. It was slow, boring and terribly pretentious. There was one real moment of suspense and I sat there waiting for a huge leftfield surprise, ala Unbreakable or The Village. Unfortunately, it ended with a whimper, as if the directer just got lazy and said, “you know what, lets just cut the turning point short and skip the falling action. Lets go right to dénouement”. What the F! I was actually angry at the movie. More so than when I found out that the aliens that landed on the 75% water planet are killed BY WATER! On the bright side, I watched a downloaded copy that cost me nothing. On the other hand, I’ll never get that hour and a half of my life back. So let me save you $9-15/ticket and again restate, skip The Happening. Two people and some concession snacks, I’d say I just put you about $40 ahead.
2) Now comes the real money saver, before you spend money on any movies in the future, check out RottenTomatoes first. It’s the best review site on the net with a great rating system, the Tomatometer. Just for a reference, The Happening got 19% out of 100%. If you’re looking for a great movie worth watching, check out The Hammer. Its a really funny movie everyone will love, guys, girls and families. It has an R rating, but underservedly (No gore, no nudity, no swearing and little blood). Its a great small film that never got its justice in the theaters, but is out on DVD now.
3) Refuse to pay full price on a Friday and Saturday night. Its the same movie whether you watch it during the day, night or afternoon. For me, matinees are the winner. You might be asking, what about movies on a date? No no no… best movie date is one spent at home with a good DVD (preferably The Hammer) and a bottle of wine… skip the popcorn. No on likes popcorn breath.
4) Get a $9/mo Netflix account, and watch as many movies as you want at home. I have regular movie nights at my house of the newest releases with a bunch of friends and its a blast. No lines, no annoying kids, no punks on cellphones and best of all,… free food and drinks beer. Besides, the only real movies that you really NEED to watch on the big screen are those that make use of the 20ft canvas, contain lifelike visual detail and put out bone jarring surround sound, like Transformers, Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk. Knocked Up, Forgetting Sara Marshall and SuperBad are just as good, if not better, at home with friends.
Netflix also eliminates the need to own, and store all the DVD’s you’ll probably watch only one more time for the rest of your lifetime.
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My Net Worth - June 2008
By JD Bluefield | June 11, 2008
My Net Worth for June 2008: Although late by about a week this, was my Net Worth for the start of June. If you’d like to learn more about my net worth, how I calculate it and how you can too, check out my Net Worth April 2008 post. You’ll as find a great Excel spreadsheet, called Net Worth Calculator, I made to help you and your friends keep track of your own net worth.
My Monthly Net Worth (June 2008): Figure 1 shows my net worth from 2007 to June 2008, with monthly data-points. Overall, if you look at the bar at the top, my net worth increased by about $8,000 (+3.69%). It did peak at one point midway through May $12,000 up, but has since fallen with the price of gold and oil. (Side Note: Gold is currently down further as of 6/10 and oil has since moved further to test $140/barrel, but these numbers are June 1st number, so bear with me.) Click on the chart to enlarge.
Figure 1: My Monthly Net Worth
Here is a breakdown of how my different investments have performed.
- Savings: Savings up a little bit as there was not huge bill from the tax man this month and bank interest rates holding steady, (Emigrant, 2.75% and ING, 3.0%). My new 4.0% checking account at CPB did help a little, but marginally.
- Stocks: While my riskier stocks positioned against inflation dropped last month, they have now gone up dramatically, near or at new highs. If you read the InBev to drink Bud post, you’ll know that BUD has risen much higher in the last couple weeks, and peaked at around $57 this Friday.
- Retirement: Steady contribution, and up from last month. My TSP for June to come in a couple weeks.
- Mortgage: Still paying it off, so that’s decreasing my debt.
- Loans/Credit Cards: No loans and I pay off the balance every month so, no change there.
My Net Worth Evaluation: Overall, i attribute the rise in Net Worth to gold and oil’s rise and NOT having to fork over loads of dough to Uncle Sam.
My Yearly Net Worth Changes: Figure 2 shows my net worth from college/starting work to present day. Click on the chart to enlarge.
Figure 2: My Yearly Net Worth
In Closing: I’m not going to lie, it feels great to be back above the $500k mark, but it honestly doesn’t make a difference in the way I invest or my state of mind. I still live way below my means, spend as little as possible and try to save all that I can.
As a teaser for things to come, and a hint to my lack of posts… let me just say that over the last two weeks I significantly increased my cash reserves, decreased my liabilities and pulled the trigger on a stock purchase. As I said last month, I’m pulling cash on the said and looking for undervalued stocks. All to be revealed soon…
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Where’s the Beef
By JD Bluefield | June 10, 2008
For the avid readers of this blog, you may have noticed my absence over the last couple of weeks. Many readers have emailed and asked, “what’s going on? Are you still blogging?” Well, let me assure you that nothing is wrong and I will continue this blog. I will get into the details soon enough, but first, to play catch up, I will start with the June 2008 Net Worth and then get into why I’ve been absent and the good reasons behind it.
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Must Read: Buffett Says In For Long Recession
By JD Bluefield | May 25, 2008
I just read a great article on Warren Buffett yesterday. It basically says that you can call a recession when the technical definition occurs, but we’re already there whether you want to admit it or not. Here are the pertinent parts:
He said the United States was “already in recession” and added: “Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it” with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
“But the people are already feeling the effects,” said Buffett, the world’s richest man. “It will be deeper and last longer than many think.”
Buffett also renewed his criticism of derivatives trading. “It’s not right that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being eliminated, that entire industrial sectors in the real economy are being wiped out by financial bets even though the sectors are actually in good health.”
Click here for the full article.
The FDIC is also hinting at hard times: They are saying that there may be a record of banks failing in the near future, mostly due to credit derivitives and housing speculation. As you can see, with the Savings and Loans scandal of the 80’s, this may be the worst time in history for banks in 20 years.
Engineer Your Food And Finances: If you haven’t begun cutting your budget or planning for future hard times, now might be a good time to start. You also might want to look into storing food and buying in bulk. I wouldn’t plan for all out society breakdown and anarchy, but its always good to be prepared for short term bumps in supply and prices.
Engineer A Factor of Safety: If you’ve read Engineering Out Luck, you know I always like to give myself some buffer with money and stocks, but the same applies to food too. I’m always reminded of the Oct 2006 earthquake that knocked out all of Hawaii’s power for a full day. It may not sound like much, but within hours people were panicking and mobbing stores for food and water. By the following morning, all the power had been restored, but for the next week people continued to mob stores for food, water and supplies. I’m sure by now, this is just a forgotten memory and they’ve pretty much eaten through that safety net. If you keep a FoS on food, you’ll be doing what I did during that blackout. While all the insanity was going down, I was finishing off the beers before they got warm and barbecuing on my propane grill. Be prepared and you’ll never have to be the chicken without a head.
If you’re going to prepare ahead, in terms of food/water, insure you have enough for the number of people in your family. An active reader just sent me this link to Costco, that shows the different emergency food kits they offer. The most interesting is the $80, 275 serving bucket that lasts up to 20 years. Very neat. These buckets should always be the last resort, after the main food in the fridge has been used up.
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